Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89e2…6e01 crypto 811 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$411 (-4%) realized −$411 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate70%565W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$488
sports 7% −$86
other 2% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 54% -3.4%
≤30d 26 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 50% -15.1%
≤90d 808 -6.1% -15.0% 70% 63% -14.8%
all 808 -6.1% -15.0% 70% 63% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 63% -14.8%
10% -23.2% 43% -22.9%
15% -30.6% 14% -30.4%
20% -37.4% 3% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses565 / 243
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)808 / 811
History coverage74d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$10 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$12 -72%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $38 +$41 +110%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 +$32 +43%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$20 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$11 +30%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$9 -57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$17 -56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 +$10 +74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$67 +132%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $12 +$13 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $20 +$29 +145%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $30 +$19 +63%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $71 −$70 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 16 $20 −$15 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 16 $21 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 16 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 16 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $20 −$17 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $13 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $79 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $7 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 27h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 28h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 30h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 30h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 18¢ $7 30h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $3 30h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $4 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 30h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $7 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $18 31h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.00 · official $16.00 (match) · 1880 history records