Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
89 0x89e1…ea4c other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,211 (+14%) realized +$1,211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$594per market
Trades / day120.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$6,630
sports 20% +$769
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +23.3% +11.6% 60% 47% +65.6%
≤30d 15 +23.3% +11.6% 60% 47% +65.6%
≤90d 15 +23.3% +11.6% 60% 47% +65.6%
all 15 +23.3% +11.6% 60% 47% +65.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 47% +65.6%
10% +0.9% 40% +49.8%
15% ← realistic here -8.9% 40% +35.3%
20% -17.8% 27% +22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +83% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$857 vs −$52 · ×16.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.6 per $1 lost it wins $24.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$594
Trades / day120.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,517 +$5,516 +219%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,041 +$485 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $615 −$283 -46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $754 +$284 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,502 +$715 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $91 +$121 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $88 −$5 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $216 +$558 +259%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 38m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $26 55m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $38 55m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $39 56m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $39 56m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $40 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 56¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records