Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

89 0x89dc…c012 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$2,218 (-66%) realized −$2,222 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip

Net edge-68%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%2W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$372per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$0

7 days−$1,236

14 days−$1,236

30 days−$2,222

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-67.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-52.1%	-56.7%	33%	33%	-63.2%
≤30d	8	-64.1%	-67.5%	25%	25%	-75.0%
≤90d	8	-64.1%	-67.5%	25%	25%	-75.0%
all	8	-64.1%	-67.5%	25%	25%	-75.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-67.5%	25%	-75.0%
10%	-70.6%	12%	-77.4%
15%	-73.5%	12%	-79.6%
20%	-76.1%	12%	-81.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -64% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$100 vs −$404 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.08 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage

Net worth$247

Realized−$2,222

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses2 / 6

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage25d

Avg bet$372

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$243	$247	+$4 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$148	+$100	+67%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$102	−$100	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$249	−$243	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 14	$500	−$497	-99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$600	−$595	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$500	+$99	+20%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the	May 23	$481	−$476	-99%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23?	May 23	$517	−$510	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$248	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$148	4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	25h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	22¢	$249	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	80¢	$500	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	74¢	$600	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	83¢	$500	3d
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the	BUY Yes	66¢	$481	25d
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23?	BUY Yes	51¢	$507	25d
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	25d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.73 · official $246.73 (match) · 12 history records