Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89dc…7952 weather 395 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$314 (-2%) realized −$315 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate89%347W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$178
14 days−$95
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -10.5% -19.0% 84% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 84 -5.2% -14.2% 88% 10% -14.1%
≤90d 387 -3.2% -12.4% 90% 13% -11.9%
all 388 -3.1% -12.4% 89% 13% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 13% -11.9%
10% -20.8% 2% -20.4%
15% -28.4% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$25 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses347 / 41
Open positions7
Markets (closed)388 / 395
History coverage102d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 29? No 96¢ 100¢ $150 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $148 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1? No 91¢ 87¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 29? No 94¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on July 1? No 92¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 29? No 92¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $96 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 26 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 26 $150 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 26 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $133 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 79°F or below on June 24? Jun 25 $139 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? Jun 25 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $149 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? Jun 25 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $239 +$17 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $149 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $199 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? Jun 24 $37 −$22 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $150 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $70 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $150 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $151 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $66 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $136 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $151 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $151 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $131 +$27 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $150 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $87 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 10 $136 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $150 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $72 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 09 $76 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $92 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on July 1? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1? BUY No 91¢ $151 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June BUY No 96¢ $149 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 14h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 96¢ $150 38h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $15 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 93¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $150 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $60 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $150 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $133 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 25? BUY Yes 93¢ $150 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 93¢ $82 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $96 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $82 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? BUY Yes 93¢ $42 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $149 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $29 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $149 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 92¢ $83 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $150 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.20 · official $529.14 (match) · 901 history records