Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x89da…8b23 sports 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,066 (-80%) realized −$2,066 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$2,055
politics 18% −$1
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.7% -5.3% 40% 40% -34.5%
≤30d 18 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% -10.5%
≤90d 19 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 42% -11.5%
all 24 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -81.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -81.7%
10% -41.4% 33% -83.5%
15% -47.1% 33% -85.1%
20% -52.3% 29% -86.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -92% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$131 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,066
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage158d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +105%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +127%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 08 $5 +$3 +75%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 08 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $463 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11AM ET Jan 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10AM ET Jan 09 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9AM ET Jan 09 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8AM ET Jan 09 $301 −$301 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET Jan 09 $508 −$508 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $6 2d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $2 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 30¢ $3 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $3 6d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $3 8d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $0 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $462 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 10d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 34¢ $4 13d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 62¢ $7 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 18d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $3 23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 25d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 47¢ $6 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $463 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $95 159d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $125 159d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,026 159d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $301 159d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $358 159d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $149 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records