Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89d9…5136 sports 609 markets active 4d ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$706 (-1%) realized −$760 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%300W / 305L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$154
crypto 21% +$131
other 20% +$230
politics 14% −$1,234
economics 14% +$190
world 1% +$2
weather 1% +$99
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$6
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 33% -7.5%
≤30d 14 -11.0% -19.5% 64% 29% -4.2%
≤90d 353 -22.8% -30.2% 27% 24% -28.5%
all 605 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 39% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 39% -11.0%
10% -12.4% 36% -19.5%
15% -20.8% 35% -27.3%
20% -28.6% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$760
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses300 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)605 / 609
History coverage542d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 61¢ 77¢ $50 $64 +$13 (+27%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 49¢ 68¢ $39 $54 +$15 (+38%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? No 7¢ 54¢ $4 $27 +$23 (+664%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $11 +$9 +75%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +81%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +116%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $1,383 +$30 +2%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by May 31? Jun 01 $509 +$39 +8%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? Jun 01 $144 +$3 +2%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31? Jun 01 $218 +$22 +10%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by May 31? Jun 01 $361 +$64 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 29 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 11 $291 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? May 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on April 30? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 07 $3 $0 +13%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $2 +$1 +48%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 06 $1 +$6 +596%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30? May 01 $168 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $1 +$8 +622%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 30 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 29? Apr 29 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 29? Apr 29 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 29? Apr 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 25? Apr 29 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on April 25? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 23? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 24? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 $0 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 26? Apr 26 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 26 $2 $0 -24%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 24? Apr 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on April 23? Apr 23 $4 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 23? Apr 23 $2 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $10 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 68¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 5d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $24 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $20 6d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $6 6d
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? BUY No 56¢ $11 6d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 62¢ $21 6d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,413 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $10 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $10 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 6d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? BUY No 54¢ $3 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 63¢ $10 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 63¢ $10 11d
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? BUY No 7¢ $4 13d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $520 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.64 · official $153.51 (match) · 1760 history records