Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89d6…f4dc sports 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$62 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%277W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$320
14 days−$160
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$236
world 21% −$14
politics 15% −$23
other 14% +$178
culture 7% −$26
weather 1% +$2
finance 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$5
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -8.4% -17.2% 62% 23% -16.7%
≤30d 398 -4.7% -13.8% 63% 33% -12.6%
≤90d 401 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 33% -9.7%
all 441 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 33% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 33% -10.6%
10% -22.7% 13% -19.2%
15% -30.1% 9% -27.0%
20% -37.0% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses277 / 164
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions36
Markets (closed)441 / 478
History coverage236d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 50¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 78¢ 86¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 81¢ 82¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 72¢ 74¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 88¢ 87¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 89¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 53¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$21 +53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $46 −$6 -14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $78 −$10 -13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$9 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $83 +$11 +14%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$2 -17%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $229 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $148 +$3 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $178 +$17 +9%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $23 −$4 -16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $210 +$7 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +6%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$3 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$6 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $71 +$10 +15%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $41 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $55 +$8 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$4 +14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $3 $0 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $53 +$7 +12%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $0 $0 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $44 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 72¢ $13 40m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 86¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 86¢ $11 2h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 89¢ $4 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $40 5h
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5h
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $3 7h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $42 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $41 9h
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $4 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 78¢ $41 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 65¢ $6 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 65¢ $1 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 65¢ $4 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 9h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $3 10h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $38 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 78¢ $11 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $4 11h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $3 11h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $4 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $41 11h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $5 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 70¢ $41 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.87 · official $292.41 (match) · 1546 history records