Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89d4…f27e crypto 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%114W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$24
other 22% −$9
politics 20% −$5
sports 13% −$10
world 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -16.6% -24.6% 67% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 139 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 6% -9.8%
all 247 -10.0% -18.5% 46% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 8% -9.7%
10% -26.3% 8% -18.3%
15% -33.5% 7% -26.2%
20% -40.0% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses114 / 133
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage165d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Song Ki-sub win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial el Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on May 30? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $64 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 P May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $91 $0 +0%
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $90 $0 -0%
World Championships: Canada vs. USA May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $105 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $108 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 24 $111 $0 -0%
Aquila Basket Trento vs. Virtus Bologna May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $115 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $114 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 21 $7 +$6 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $459 −$1 -0%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Hanwha Eagles May 20 $4 +$5 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $105 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series May 19 $8 +$8 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $97 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $96 $0 -0%
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Terence Atmane May 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 11 $108 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $108 $0 -0%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 27d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 P BUY Johnny Speeds 47¢ $6 27d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 27d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 27d
Will Song Ki-sub win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial el BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 28d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $91 29d
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 29d
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 29d
World Championships: Canada vs. USA BUY USA 21¢ $2 29d
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 30d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof BUY Alliance 37¢ $4 30d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $108 30d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $108 30d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $108 30d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $108 30d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 31d
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 31d
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 32d
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler BUY Hanyu Guo 30¢ $3 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 33d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $111 33d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $111 33d
Aquila Basket Trento vs. Virtus Bologna BUY Aquila Basket Trento 42¢ $4 33d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $115 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.95 · official $96.95 (match) · 511 history records