Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89d4…00a2 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+14%) realized +$110 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 39L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$212
14 days+$179
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$3
sports 46% +$171
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +24.3% +12.5% 53% 53% +27.3%
≤30d 77 +10.3% -0.2% 49% 49% +17.5%
≤90d 77 +10.3% -0.2% 49% 49% +17.5%
all 77 +10.3% -0.2% 49% 49% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 49% +17.5%
10% -9.7% 48% +6.3%
15% -18.5% 45% -4.0%
20% -26.5% 42% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 39
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 89
History coverage10d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 40¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 +$2 +35%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$4 +75%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 +$9 +184%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $3 +$3 +101%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $4 +$6 +145%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 +$5 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$8 +152%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +59%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 +$25 +478%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +64%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$11 +133%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +57%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$2 +39%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$14 +278%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $12 +$19 +158%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 +$21 +57%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$26 +197%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$16 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$10 +134%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$10 +250%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$44 +218%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $8 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $9 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $14 2h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 8¢ $3 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $5 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $5 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $5 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $6 10h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 21h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $6 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 94¢ $10 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $13 22h
Germany leading at halftime? AND Germany to win the second half? BUY 32¢ $3 24h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $3 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $8 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 66¢ $30 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 11¢ $5 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 30h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $5 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $4 34h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 7¢ $5 34h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $20 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $5 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $4 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.99 · official $102.12 (match) · 129 history records