Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x89cd…4d7d
other · 113 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$41,570 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41,138 · open −$3,082
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$100,495
Realized+$41,138
Unrealized−$3,082
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses48 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3,585
Open positions36
Markets (closed)81 / 113
Avg bet$7,242
Trades / day52.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 36 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,136
7 days+$2,514
14 days+$75,542
30 days+$56,884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $34,544 $34,935 +$391 (+1%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $9,932 $10,461 +$529 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6,720 $6,741 +$21 (+0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $7,298 $6,596 −$702 (-10%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,960 $4,990 +$30 (+1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $4,888 $4,824 −$63 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $4,252 $4,257 +$4 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 90¢ 93¢ $3,981 $4,125 +$143 (+4%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 23¢ 19¢ $4,458 $3,698 −$761 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3,148 $3,268 +$120 (+4%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 76¢ 78¢ $3,053 $3,140 +$87 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2,720 $2,882 +$162 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,917 $1,862 −$55 (-3%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 87¢ 78¢ $1,740 $1,550 −$190 (-11%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,199 $1,228 +$30 (+2%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 55¢ 15¢ $3,473 $975 −$2,497 (-72%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $861 $886 +$25 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1,030 $752 −$278 (-27%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $650 −$50 (-7%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $604 $611 +$8 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 57¢ 56¢ $570 $555 −$15 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 33¢ 34¢ $329 $344 +$15 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? No 43¢ 34¢ $299 $237 −$62 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $136 $144 +$8 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $18,147 +$1,509 +8%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 11 $18 +$20 +112%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 11 $1,686 +$1,102 +65%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $520 +$9 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $951 −$20 -2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $1,499 +$2,453 +164%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $2,951 −$1,907 -65%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 05 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 04 $29 +$2 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $370 +$630 +170%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $109,232 +$498 +0%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $4,790 +$210 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $294 +$206 +70%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $220 −$220 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $2,154 −$1,587 -74%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $82 −$82 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $370 +$433 +117%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 02 $572 +$63 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 02 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $21 +$3 +15%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $16,250 +$12,440 +77%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $79,696 +$60,926 +76%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $4,801 +$159 +3%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $8,330 −$872 -10%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $16,291 +$557 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $574 +$2 +0%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $1,866 −$1,866 -100%
Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 23 $10,308 +$105 +1%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $3,000 −$1,280 -43%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $21,153 −$15,613 -74%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $247 −$130 -53%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia? May 14 $208 −$19 -9%
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? May 14 $76 +$53 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $5,587 −$40 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $7,841 +$186 +2%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? May 09 $88 +$16 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $1,079 +$566 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $1,428 −$1,396 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $14,014 −$4,785 -34%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $7,645 +$2,466 +32%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $1,473 −$1,473 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $3,795 +$1,476 +39%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $466 −$466 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $290 −$290 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $1,433 −$437 -30%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $29,910 +$90 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$10,060
sports 29% +$44,820
crypto 13% +$512
world 12% +$2,617
finance 11% +$414
economics 4% −$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $0 3m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $21 13m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $2 49m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $10 51m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $1 54m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $0 55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 55m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $30 59m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $8 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $5 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $23 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $9 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $3 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $5 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $23 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $4 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $9 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $0 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $24 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $200 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $6 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 30% -0.9%
≤30d 39 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 28% +6.5%
≤90d 81 +3.0% -6.8% 59% 30% -3.8%
all 81 +3.0% -6.8% 59% 30% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 30% -3.8%
10% -15.7% 26% -13.0%
15% ← realistic here -23.8% 23% -21.4%
20% -31.3% 21% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100,495.48 · official $100,494.38 (match) · 3500 history records