Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89cd…d266 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$35 (-3%) realized −$169 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$75
sports 39% −$253
world 14% +$137
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -24.3% -31.5% 42% 42% -31.5%
≤30d 12 -24.3% -31.5% 42% 42% -31.5%
≤90d 12 -24.3% -31.5% 42% 42% -31.5%
all 12 -24.3% -31.5% 42% 42% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 42% -31.5%
10% -38.1% 42% -38.1%
15% -44.1% 42% -44.1%
20% -49.6% 33% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$58 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 50¢ 95¢ $151 $288 +$137 (+91%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 60¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 +$22 +36%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $58 +$39 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$74 +180%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $97 +$55 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $178 −$175 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $66 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 13h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 59¢ $58 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $41 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $131 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $151 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $97 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $178 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.48 · official $515.48 (match) · 21 history records