Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89cc…9e01 weather 652 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate86%553W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$29
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$16
sports 1% −$17
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 20% -8.5%
≤30d 512 +2.7% -7.1% 86% 18% -9.5%
≤90d 598 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 17% -10.0%
all 645 +1.6% -8.1% 86% 16% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 16% -10.3%
10% -16.9% 8% -18.9%
15% -24.9% 6% -26.7%
20% -32.3% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses553 / 92
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)645 / 652
History coverage96d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? No 54¢ 54¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 91¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? No 98¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? No 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? No 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +322%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $7 13m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 52¢ $4 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $3 55m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 53¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 53¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 55¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 53¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 52¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 57¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 57¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 58¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 58¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 58¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 57¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 57¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL No 14¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 13¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.25 · official $27.25 (match) · 1531 history records