Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89cb…4fd8 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$580 (+2%) realized +$582 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day294.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$181
crypto 41% +$2,296
sports 6% −$528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 40% -2.2%
≤30d 57 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 40% -2.2%
≤90d 57 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 40% -2.2%
all 57 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 40% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover294.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 40% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 37% -11.5%
15% -24.5% 30% -20.1%
20% -31.9% 19% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$501) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$175 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$582
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage2d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day294.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $308 +$148 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $811 +$432 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $964 +$1,699 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $403 +$39 +10%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $616 −$100 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $531 −$40 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $140 −$20 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $314 +$100 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $413 +$186 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $147 +$75 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $297 +$147 +49%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $178 +$118 +66%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $335 −$335 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,203 −$502 -42%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $203 +$223 +110%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,124 −$269 -13%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $153 −$115 -75%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 25 $423 −$423 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 24 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $265 −$7 -3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $226 −$214 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $281 +$104 +37%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $419 +$122 +29%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $337 −$328 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $513 −$370 -72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,480 +$471 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $946 −$500 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $257 +$187 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $1,005 −$72 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $970 −$86 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $551 +$268 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $231 +$126 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $340 +$48 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $374 +$134 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $270 +$72 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $106 +$61 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $261 −$28 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $172 −$120 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $292 −$284 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $617 +$382 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $552 −$552 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $32 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $32 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $32 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $32 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $19 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $67 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.50 · official $389.66 · 733 history records