Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x89ca…6679 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate79%37W / 10L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$66
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +13.1% +2.3% 82% 68% -0.5%
≤30d 38 +13.1% +2.3% 82% 68% -0.5%
≤90d 47 +12.9% +2.1% 79% 68% -1.1%
all 47 +12.9% +2.1% 79% 68% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 68% -1.1%
10% -7.7% 43% -10.5%
15% -16.6% 23% -19.2%
20% -24.8% 17% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses37 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage42d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$15 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records