Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89c6…7742 crypto 1021 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,755 (-15%) realized −$1,753 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate77%787W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day95.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$13
14 days−$19
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$285
other 2% −$10
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -1.6% -10.9% 88% 7% -10.0%
≤30d 1020 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 17% -11.8%
≤90d 1020 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 17% -11.8%
all 1020 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 17% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 17% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 4% -20.2%
15% -29.0% 2% -27.9%
20% -35.9% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,753
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses787 / 233
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1020 / 1021
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day95.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1020 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 86¢ 50¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 3500 history records