Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89c5…24d1 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$230 (+22%) realized +$229 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$170
other 4% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +39.6% +26.3% 23% 23% +3.8%
≤30d 61 +39.6% +26.3% 23% 23% +3.8%
≤90d 61 +39.6% +26.3% 23% 23% +3.8%
all 61 +39.6% +26.3% 23% 23% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.3% 23% +3.8%
10% ← realistic here +14.2% 23% -6.1%
15% +3.2% 21% -15.2%
20% -7.0% 18% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$14 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 47
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 28¢ 30¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Over 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $81 −$56 -70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $24 −$21 -90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $37 +$163 +442%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $8 +$92 +1095%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $43 −$42 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $12 +$7 +56%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $8 +$96 +1164%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $14 +$86 +596%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $22 +$8 +38%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $38 +$118 +311%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $7 −$6 -85%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $16 −$10 -58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 −$18 -62%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$1 -19%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$10 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 48m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $29 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $14 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $23 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $2 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $20 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $45 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $43 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $6 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $3 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $37 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $23 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $19 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $8 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 18¢ $19 30h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 7¢ $14 30h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 30h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $23 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $12 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $37 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.50 · official $36.50 (match) · 108 history records