Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x89be…3d85 sports 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 808d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$296 (-1%) realized −$291 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%87W / 183L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$51
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$234
politics 27% −$26
other 19% −$8
culture 9% −$3
crypto 7% −$5
economics 4% −$2
tech 4% $0
world 0% −$14
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 56 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 41% -28.7%
≤90d 61 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 41% -28.6%
all 270 -7.2% -16.0% 32% 28% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 28% -10.2%
10% -24.1% 23% -18.8%
15% -31.4% 19% -26.7%
20% -38.1% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

808d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses87 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)270 / 282
History coverage808d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 66¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 63¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 56¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 40¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? No 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +101%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -34%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $8 −$7 -83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 09 $12 −$2 -14%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 +$2 +45%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $30 −$3 -10%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +48%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $6 $0 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $3 $0 -13%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$2 +29%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$4 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $6 +$6 +107%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $3 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 69¢ $2 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 6h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 7h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 8h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 9h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 9h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 12h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.37 · official $45.37 (match) · 671 history records