Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89bc…22c3 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$570 (+16%) realized +$573 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%42W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$753
14 days+$672
30 days+$672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$607
sports 45% −$85
world 1% +$11
economics 1% +$10
crypto 0% +$9
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +41.4% +27.9% 80% 80% +36.0%
≤30d 6 +17.8% +6.6% 67% 67% +29.1%
≤90d 13 +3.2% -6.7% 54% 54% +23.7%
all 74 +7.7% -2.6% 57% 57% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 57% +5.7%
10% -11.9% 55% -4.4%
15% -20.4% 51% -13.6%
20% -28.2% 39% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$37 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized+$573
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses42 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage579d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $339 $336 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $291 +$110 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $269 +$65 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $355 +$803 +226%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $300 +$55 +18%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $283 −$281 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $82 −$80 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $13 −$13 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? May 04 $13 +$11 +83%
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 12 $25 +$10 +38%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 01 $27 +$31 +116%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Miami Open: Solana Sierra vs Jaqueline Cristian Mar 22 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? Mar 04 $54 +$64 +117%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-05? Feb 08 $101 +$37 +37%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $112 −$56 -50%
Bruins vs. Stars Jan 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Jan 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Red Wings vs. Canadiens Jan 15 $37 +$42 +112%
Eagles vs. Chargers Jan 10 $45 +$54 +122%
Clippers vs. Hawks Dec 08 $45 +$64 +144%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 03 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Oilers vs. Flyers Nov 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Blues vs. Sabres Nov 12 $28 +$35 +122%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Nov 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Oilers vs. Islanders Nov 02 $21 +$31 +144%
Hawks vs. Magic Nov 02 $20 +$33 +170%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 16 $26 +$29 +113%
49ers vs. Rams Oct 10 $7 +$24 +376%
Tigers vs. Guardians Sep 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? Sep 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 22 $11 +$9 +85%
Nationals vs. Marlins Sep 15 $13 +$15 +113%
Guardians vs. Red Sox Sep 08 $15 +$7 +43%
Boise State vs. South Florida Aug 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Cubs vs. Angels Aug 28 $12 +$9 +82%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 13 $14 +$7 +54%
Dodgers vs. Rays Aug 04 $14 +$14 +104%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Aug 02 $14 +$8 +54%
Padres vs. Cardinals Aug 02 $14 +$9 +70%
Rockies vs. Red Sox Jul 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Rangers vs. Orioles Jul 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Cardinals vs. Cubs Jul 08 $11 +$7 +70%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Angels vs. Orioles Jun 24 $8 +$7 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $343 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $291 45h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $269 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $355 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $300 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $283 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $82 9d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 45d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 67d
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 72¢ $25 78d
76ers vs. Heat BUY Heat 46¢ $27 80d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $52 89d
Miami Open: Solana Sierra vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 51¢ $38 94d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 68¢ $84 106d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? BUY No 46¢ $54 109d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $76 119d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 45¢ $60 130d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-05? BUY No 73¢ $101 133d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $56 140d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $112 142d
Bruins vs. Stars BUY Bruins 44¢ $40 149d
Celtics vs. Heat BUY Heat 43¢ $79 154d
Red Wings vs. Canadiens SELL Red Wings 43¢ $4 159d
Red Wings vs. Canadiens BUY Red Wings 44¢ $37 159d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Chargers 45¢ $45 192d
Clippers vs. Hawks BUY Clippers 41¢ $45 198d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 58¢ $28 206d
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $50 208d
Oilers vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 46¢ $40 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.77 · official $335.77 (match) · 142 history records