Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b9…d3bf other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-10%) realized −$61 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$41
sports 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -36.7% -42.7% 32% 26% -19.8%
≤30d 34 -36.7% -42.7% 32% 26% -19.8%
≤90d 34 -36.7% -42.7% 32% 26% -19.8%
all 34 -36.7% -42.7% 32% 26% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 26% -19.8%
10% -48.2% 24% -27.5%
15% -53.2% 24% -34.5%
20% -57.8% 21% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)34 / 44
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 62¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 27¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Argentina to win the second half? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 69¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Yes 40¢ 35¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$26 -85%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +86%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +238%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 +$4 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -93%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 43h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $2 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $3 43h
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.43 · official $95.81 (match) · 64 history records