Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b9…e8f5 crypto 944 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,304 (-16%) realized −$2,101 · open −$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%308W / 624L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days−$298
14 days−$331
30 days−$889
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2,324
other 5% −$250
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% −$10
world 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -22.3% -29.7% 24% 23% -28.7%
≤30d 526 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 32% -20.8%
≤90d 564 -14.4% -22.6% 33% 32% -21.8%
all 932 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 32% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 32% -25.6%
10% -32.9% 31% -32.7%
15% -39.4% 29% -39.2%
20% -45.3% 26% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$2,101
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses308 / 624
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)932 / 944
History coverage146d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 932 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $91 $84 −$8 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$8 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$21 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$38 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$75 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$133 +506%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $93 10m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $94 11m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $198 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $197 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.70 · official $83.70 (match) · 1447 history records