Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b8…82b2 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-0%) realized −$265 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate66%162W / 85L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,886per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days−$163
14 days−$167
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$1,022
world 13% −$1,035
crypto 3% −$10
sports 2% +$29
politics 1% +$388
finance 1% +$22
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -28.4% -35.2% 56% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 71 -18.4% -26.2% 51% 8% -11.7%
≤90d 160 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 13% -11.1%
all 247 -7.0% -15.8% 66% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 10% -9.4%
10% -23.9% 7% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -31.2% 6% -26.0%
20% -38.0% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,946) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$113 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$265
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses162 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 249
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$1,886
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $294 $287 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $397 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $487 +$10 +2%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $428 −$36 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $405 −$259 -64%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $773 +$16 +2%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $777 +$14 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $404 +$18 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $641 +$27 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $699 +$52 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,385 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $668 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $302 +$30 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $714 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $238 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $329 +$18 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $583 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $112 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $881 −$10 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $400 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $252 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $569 −$34 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $371 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $672 −$107 -16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $377 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $288 +$11 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,088 +$54 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $493 +$13 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $308 +$18 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $58 −$34 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1,390 −$106 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,804 −$109 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $30 −$6 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $39 +$7 +17%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $294 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $0 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $64 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $100 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $100 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $10 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $20 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 98¢ $293 4h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $399 5h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 15h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 15h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 15h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $199 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $76 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $89 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $82 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $291 30h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 32h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 32h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 89¢ $138 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 85¢ $3 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 85¢ $5 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 85¢ $40 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 85¢ $26 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 85¢ $30 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 85¢ $85 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 85¢ $67 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 94¢ $282 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.65 · official $286.65 (match) · 3500 history records