Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b6…886e weather 1129 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$600 (-4%) realized −$612 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%330W / 798L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$113
14 days+$78
30 days−$410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$320
other 19% −$142
weather 14% −$700
crypto 3% −$83
culture 1% −$143
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -1.9% -11.3% 66% 39% -8.5%
≤30d 674 -35.5% -41.7% 26% 22% -12.3%
≤90d 1128 -17.8% -25.6% 29% 26% -14.3%
all 1128 -17.8% -25.6% 29% 26% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 26% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 23% -22.5%
15% -39.3% 20% -30.0%
20% -45.2% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$612
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses330 / 798
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1128 / 1129
History coverage50d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $110 $122 +$12 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $40 −$16 -40%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$16 +30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $352 +$45 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $257 +$117 +46%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $302 −$300 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $200 +$11 +6%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $400 +$12 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $301 +$53 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 +$9 +21%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $342 +$62 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$23 -77%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $212 +$117 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$150 -50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $91 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $121 +$27 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $200 +$11 +6%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $105 +$12 +11%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 −$65 -52%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$17 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $361 +$33 +9%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$12 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 14 $381 −$95 -25%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $251 +$31 +12%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $281 +$36 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$33 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 3m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 19¢ $4 4m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $306 8m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 9m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 83¢ $20 52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 54m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $300 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 72¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 72¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 96¢ $200 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $375 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $257 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 77¢ $101 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $100 13h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 100¢ $211 15h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 100¢ $110 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 78¢ $101 16h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 91¢ $100 17h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 94¢ $200 17h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $412 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $300 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $100 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $109 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.80 · official $121.80 (match) · 3029 history records