Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
89 0x89b1…b6be sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$9 (+6%) realized +$9 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$13
other 14% +$9
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
≤30d 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
≤90d 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
all 2 +22.4% +10.8% 100% 50% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 50% +16.3%
10% +0.2% 50% +5.2%
15% -9.5% 50% -4.9%
20% -18.4% 0% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage173d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 78¢ $80 $67 −$13 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $80 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: BUY 68¢ $37 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $10 173d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $1 173d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.39 · official $67.39 (match) · 8 history records