Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x89b1…a30c crypto 242 markets active 11d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,190 (+13%) realized +$2,190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%144W / 98L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$981
30 days+$1,893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,951
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 230 +13.7% +2.9% 59% 59% +1.9%
≤90d 242 +14.1% +3.2% 60% 59% +2.1%
all 242 +14.1% +3.2% 60% 59% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 59% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 58% -7.7%
15% -15.7% 58% -16.6%
20% -23.9% 58% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$64 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses144 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage19d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (96 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $137 +$24 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $245 +$228 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $116 +$104 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $125 +$126 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $133 −$128 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $133 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $126 +$117 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $126 +$118 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $131 −$126 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $120 +$99 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $113 +$107 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$90 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $289 +$275 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $92 +$84 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $96 −$93 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $139 +$128 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $95 −$92 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $351 +$301 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $72 +$66 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $139 −$135 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $87 −$84 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $86 +$80 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $82 +$74 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $213 +$182 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $74 +$70 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $180 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $87 −$84 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $603 −$590 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $118 +$110 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $111 +$111 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$94 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $112 −$108 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $113 +$103 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $112 −$109 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $120 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $128 −$124 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $129 +$116 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $136 −$131 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $122 +$110 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $115 +$109 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $123 −$119 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $117 +$102 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $110 +$103 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$91 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $105 +$106 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $161 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $137 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $122 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $122 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $43 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $96 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $121 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $125 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $79 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $45 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $126 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $131 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $126 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $120 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $75 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $38 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1002 history records