Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
89 0x89ad…4698 weather 345 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%194W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$13
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$92
weather 29% +$91
sports 4% $0
tech 4% −$35
crypto 1% −$17
politics 1% −$10
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +12.2% +1.5% 60% 55% +4.9%
≤30d 54 +16.3% +5.2% 72% 67% +6.5%
≤90d 223 +7.4% -2.8% 65% 52% -7.1%
all 332 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 43% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 43% -12.0%
10% -19.3% 31% -20.5%
15% -27.1% 23% -28.1%
20% -34.2% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses194 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)332 / 345
History coverage161d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? No 80¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? No 93¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? No 79¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? No 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +91%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$12 +563%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +69%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Jun 05 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$7 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 04 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$6 +202%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 03 $2 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 30? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $3 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs against All authority (BO3) - CCT Eu May 28 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $5 +$7 +163%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $5 +$7 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $2 +$2 +78%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 26 $3 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 17¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in BUY 19¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 35¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY STATE 79¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League BUY Fire Flux Esports 82¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S BUY illwill 72¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.15 · official $50.15 · 1079 history records