Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89a8…2b17 weather 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-3%) realized −$93 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate58%35W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$61
finance 24% −$17
other 15% −$21
crypto 8% +$8
culture 0% +$9
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 22% -12.1%
≤30d 60 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 22% -12.1%
≤90d 60 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 22% -12.1%
all 60 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 22% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 22% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 17% -20.5%
15% -32.8% 13% -28.2%
20% -39.4% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)60 / 69
History coverage6d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 22? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? No 90¢ 95¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $115 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 21 $74 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +116%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 −$17 -14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $347 +$4 +1%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 20 $14 +$9 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +155%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 18 $111 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 18? Jun 18 $136 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $80 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $49 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $104 +$4 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $115 −$7 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$4 -28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$5 -58%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $122 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $90 −$78 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$7 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 14m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 25m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $79 27m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 35m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 35m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $10 54m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $18 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $9 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? BUY Yes 81¢ $82 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $12 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $13 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.48 · official $252.68 (match) · 231 history records