Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x89a4…ee1a other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,374 (+20%) realized +$3,374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,496per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$837
14 days+$837
30 days+$837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$2,908
other 9% +$355
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.4% -53.3% 33% 33% +4.5%
≤30d 9 -48.4% -53.3% 33% 33% +4.5%
≤90d 10 -40.9% -46.5% 40% 40% +11.1%
all 11 -46.3% -51.4% 36% 36% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.4% 36% +8.4%
10% -56.0% 18% -2.0%
15% -60.3% 9% -11.4%
20% -64.2% 0% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$998 vs −$104 · ×9.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage234d
Avg bet$1,496
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $520 −$92 -18%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $1,845 +$373 +20%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $1,575 +$200 +13%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,214 +$597 +49%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $10,661 +$2,823 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $397 −$397 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $429 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $294 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $0 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $226 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 100¢ $754 6h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 90¢ $5 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 90¢ $909 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 80¢ $1 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 80¢ $471 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 79¢ $79 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 72¢ $994 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 72¢ $14 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 79¢ $408 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 79¢ $363 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 79¢ $66 9h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL Iraq 72¢ $0 9h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL Iraq 71¢ $1,775 9h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $1,410 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $2 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $75 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $4 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $6 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $2 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $7 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $34 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $5 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $22 11h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records