Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89a0…b8a2 crypto 761 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,283 (+107%) realized +$30,304 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%395W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,933
other 11% +$401
sports 0% +$72
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 83% 67% -7.7%
≤30d 335 -16.7% -24.7% 41% 37% -26.9%
≤90d 761 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 47% -14.2%
all 761 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 47% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 47% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 38% -22.4%
15% -26.5% 30% -29.9%
20% -33.7% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$30,304
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses395 / 366
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)761 / 761
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 761 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $221 +$51 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $119 −$119 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$4 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $99 +$12 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $172 +$64 +37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $99 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$46 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$9 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$19 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$28 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$32 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$23 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $89 +$36 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$92 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$40 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $129 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $19 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $84 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $119 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $128 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $27 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.37 (match) · 3500 history records