Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x899e…e8b7 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,743 (-19%) realized −$2,688 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$844per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$10,289
crypto 7% −$55
sports 3% −$380
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-72.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -70.0% -72.9% 20% 13% -82.9%
≤30d 15 -70.0% -72.9% 20% 13% -82.9%
≤90d 15 -70.0% -72.9% 20% 13% -82.9%
all 15 -70.0% -72.9% 20% 13% -82.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.9% 13% -82.9%
10% ← realistic here -75.5% 13% -84.5%
15% -77.9% 13% -86.0%
20% -80.0% 7% -87.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$944 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$927
Realized−$2,688
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$844
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $500 $479 −$21 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $482 $448 −$34 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9,268 −$9,120 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $205 +$7 +3%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $206 −$97 -47%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $357 −$350 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $183 −$180 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,007 +$361 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $496 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $329 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 12¢ $212 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 3¢ $109 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $812 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $357 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $8,127 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $183 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $204 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $123 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $82 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,007 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.94 · official $926.94 (match) · 24 history records