Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x899e…0863 sports 774 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$819 (-1%) realized −$819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%449W / 324L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$1,053
14 days−$1,053
30 days−$1,053
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$1,680
crypto 40% −$470
other 8% +$516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 58% 58% -55.9%
≤30d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 58% 58% -55.9%
≤90d 215 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 48% -14.0%
all 773 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 48% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 48% -11.0%
10% -19.9% 39% -19.6%
15% -27.7% 31% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$61 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses449 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)773 / 774
History coverage134d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 773 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$20 +64%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $30 +$25 +82%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $20 −$3 -13%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $15 +$13 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 Jun 26 $30 +$8 +27%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 +$5 +20%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $25 +$12 +46%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $30 +$13 +42%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$3 -9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $211 +$154 +73%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 −$89 -88%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $30 +$29 +97%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 24 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar Apr 27 $1,449 −$265 -18%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Apr 27 $1,020 +$430 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 27 $583 −$556 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 27 $848 +$184 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 27 $1,024 −$146 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 27 $477 −$282 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 27 $100 −$92 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 27 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 27 $120 +$40 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 27 $169 +$37 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 27 $100 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 27 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 27 $100 −$52 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 26 $833 +$458 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 26 $200 −$173 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 26 $300 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 26 $811 +$372 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $68 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 59¢ $40 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Belgi BUY 43¢ $20 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 19h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $50 19h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $55 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 55¢ $18 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 62¢ $20 26h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $30 26h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $30 29h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $28 31h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 54¢ $15 32h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 SELL 99¢ $38 39h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 41h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 42h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $25 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 45h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 70¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 66¢ $30 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 77¢ $30 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 86¢ $22 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2070 history records