Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8997…e953 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%29W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 29% −$2
politics 12% −$2
sports 10% −$8
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 +3.0% -6.8% 35% 1% -9.5%
all 90 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses29 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage537d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $44 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $67 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $120 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $53 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $111 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $174 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $69 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $73 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $27 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $84 −$4 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $34 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $33 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $26 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records