Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x8992…539f sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$43
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$34
other 11% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +29.2% +16.9% 71% 64% +17.1%
≤30d 21 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 52% +0.7%
≤90d 21 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 52% +0.7%
all 21 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 52% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 52% +0.7%
10% -16.4% 52% -8.9%
15% -24.4% 38% -17.7%
20% -31.9% 33% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $9 +$8 +92%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $5 +$1 +27%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$7 +142%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 +$3 +54%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$8 +162%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$3 -64%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $31 +$24 +77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 +$2 +30%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 96¢ $10 31m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 45m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 35¢ $4 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $7 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 75¢ $49 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 32h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 25¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $5 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $55 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records