Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8991…e7ef crypto 1064 markets active 19h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%612W / 452L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$27
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 58% -17.9%
≤30d 743 -1.8% -11.1% 62% 62% -10.2%
≤90d 1064 -5.6% -14.6% 58% 54% -13.9%
all 1064 -5.6% -14.6% 58% 54% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 54% -13.9%
10% -22.7% 48% -22.1%
15% -30.2% 42% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 34% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses612 / 452
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1064 / 1064
History coverage76d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1064 Trades
no open positions (279 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1851 history records