Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x898f…23f0 other 285 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,099 (+2%) realized +$1,109 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate52%146W / 137L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$225
14 days+$194
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$558
other 32% −$199
finance 25% +$392
politics 3% +$15
crypto 2% −$1
sports 1% +$212
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 0% -3.2%
≤30d 15 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 20% -4.7%
≤90d 51 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 22% -11.0%
all 283 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 18% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 18% -7.9%
10% -20.3% 12% -16.7%
15% -28.0% 8% -24.8%
20% -35.1% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized+$1,109
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses146 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)283 / 285
History coverage587d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 66¢ 65¢ $330 $325 −$5 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 20¢ 20¢ $115 $111 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $3,194 +$225 +7%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 23 $17 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$31 -76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $38 +$22 +59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$6 +25%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 07 $13 −$2 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $145 −$105 -73%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $277 +$85 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $199 −$9 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $61 −$23 -38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $203 −$6 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $42 −$4 -10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $185 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $275 +$131 +48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $35 −$7 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $286 −$140 -49%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $1,232 −$87 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $78 +$26 +34%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $60 +$3 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $615 −$111 -18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $411 −$98 -24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 24 $170 −$170 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $70 +$30 +43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $204 −$21 -10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $461 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $1,156 +$109 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $6,821 +$176 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $237 −$45 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 17 $165 −$93 -56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 17 $155 −$130 -84%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $213 −$22 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 12 $8 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $609 −$89 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $61 +$3 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $351 +$7 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 06 $180 +$50 +28%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $235 −$105 -45%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $1,149 +$23 +2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? Apr 03 $68 −$2 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $50 +$28 +56%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $47 +$45 +96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $292 +$57 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $89 −$9 -10%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $2,043 −$147 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $264 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 20¢ $80 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $66 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $229 30h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 31h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $200 31h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 31h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 32h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 32h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 32h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 32h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 33h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 33h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 34h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 34h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $75 34h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 34h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $316 34h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $16 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $14 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $3 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $187 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $10 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $41 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 27¢ $60 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 16¢ $38 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.70 · official $435.70 (match) · 2809 history records