Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x898d…a68e crypto 1049 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,073 (+3%) realized +$2,073 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%680W / 369L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day60.5pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$103
14 days−$65
30 days−$1,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$287
sports 10% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -1.4% -10.8% 85% 34% -10.7%
≤30d 473 -5.0% -14.1% 75% 54% -14.5%
≤90d 1049 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 54% -9.0%
all 1049 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 54% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 54% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 46% -17.7%
15% -28.5% 31% -25.7%
20% -35.5% 24% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$32 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,073
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses680 / 369
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1049 / 1049
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day60.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1049 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $98 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $97 +$24 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $64 +$57 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $93 +$28 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$96 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $113 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $99 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $117 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$84 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $96 +$25 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $113 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $106 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $89 +$32 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $112 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $112 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$109 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $114 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $116 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $342 +$158 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $116 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $117 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$46 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $89 −$87 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$42 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $112 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $114 +$7 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $64 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $93 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $97 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $114 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $113 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $99 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $117 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $117 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $75 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $117 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $117 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $117 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $85 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $96 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $117 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $113 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $106 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $89 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $104 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $112 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $112 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $110 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records