Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x898c…e4c3 other 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$501 (+21%) realized +$528 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%31W / 62L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$139
14 days+$297
30 days+$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$116
other 30% +$252
world 7% −$41
crypto 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -13.7% -21.9% 34% 32% -1.8%
≤30d 93 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 32% +4.7%
≤90d 93 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 32% +4.7%
all 93 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 32% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 32% +4.7%
10% -23.9% 27% -5.3%
15% -31.3% 26% -14.5%
20% -38.0% 22% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$9 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$528
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses31 / 62
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)93 / 103
History coverage51d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -56%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $11 −$6 -53%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $11 +$13 +122%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 $0 +16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $53 +$17 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $37 −$14 -37%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $104 +$12 +11%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 +$12 +115%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$15 +47%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 +$16 +102%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $105 +$20 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $11 −$3 -26%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 +$25 +463%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 +$109 +1023%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $159 −$30 -19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 +$20 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $53 2m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1 9m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 66¢ $84 9m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 15m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 28m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 75¢ $104 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 51¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 55¢ $24 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 90¢ $1 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 83¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 86¢ $70 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $1 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $23 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $37 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.48 · official $134.48 (match) · 222 history records