Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x898c…b48f crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-6%) realized −$53 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$143
sports 21% +$1
other 16% +$69
world 6% −$59
tech 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.8% -20.2% 56% 56% +3.3%
≤30d 46 -18.7% -26.4% 48% 46% -14.2%
≤90d 46 -18.7% -26.4% 48% 46% -14.2%
all 46 -18.7% -26.4% 48% 46% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 46% -14.2%
10% -33.5% 43% -22.4%
15% -39.9% 41% -29.9%
20% -45.8% 33% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage17d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 28¢ 36¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+28%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 70¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $51 −$40 -80%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $130 +$15 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$38 +34%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $63 +$48 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$51 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$30 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $23 +$11 +50%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $36 +$20 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $67 +$40 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 01 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$11 +42%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $35 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 9¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $146 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 89¢ $130 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $51 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 28¢ $35 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $94 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 17h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $51 25h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $63 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.44 · official $91.44 (match) · 109 history records