Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x898c…6da2 crypto 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-9%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%78W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day92.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 46% -19.7%
≤30d 149 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 46% -19.7%
≤90d 149 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 46% -19.7%
all 149 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 46% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 46% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 38% -27.4%
15% -37.8% 28% -34.4%
20% -43.9% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses78 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day92.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records