Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x8985…f540 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$286 (+2%) realized +$404 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$309
other 16% +$458
world 2% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.5% -20.8% 35% 35% -8.9%
≤30d 20 -12.5% -20.8% 35% 35% -8.9%
≤90d 20 -12.5% -20.8% 35% 35% -8.9%
all 20 -12.5% -20.8% 35% 35% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 35% -8.9%
10% -28.4% 35% -17.7%
15% -35.3% 30% -25.6%
20% -41.6% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$518 vs −$274 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,282
Realized+$404
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$513
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $1,313 $1,282 −$32 (-2%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $506 −$86 -17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $339 +$1,165 +343%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $366 −$361 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $306 −$300 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $487 −$475 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $314 +$174 +55%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $560 +$463 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $508 −$140 -28%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $461 −$454 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $709 −$30 -4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $848 +$635 +75%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $439 +$409 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $575 −$137 -24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $445 +$130 +29%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $182 −$179 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $205 −$205 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $507 −$507 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $397 −$393 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,469 +$652 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,328 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 51¢ $420 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 60¢ $506 1h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $89 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 96¢ $848 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 75¢ $656 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $339 7h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $366 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $306 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U BUY 30¢ $453 30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $487 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $488 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $314 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $560 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $367 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $461 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 56¢ $679 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $709 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $741 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $741 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $443 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $405 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $439 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 44¢ $438 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $575 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 79¢ $575 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $445 3d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $182 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $397 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,282.11 · official $1,282.11 (match) · 42 history records