Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8981…247a
other · 9 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$5,449 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$346 · open −$5,104
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22,474
Realized−$346
Unrealized−$5,104
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4,801
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 5 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$517
7 days−$346
14 days−$346
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10,078 $10,012 −$66 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $10,000 $9,945 −$55 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $2,000 $2,015 +$15 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $5,000 $3 −$4,997 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $8,055 −$307 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $2,018 −$36 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $5,049 −$174 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $414 +$171 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$5,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $7,749 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,982 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $4,875 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $585 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8,055 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,011 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,018 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5,049 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10,027 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5,028 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $9,516 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $579 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $414 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 25% 25% -11.5%
≤30d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 25% 25% -11.5%
≤90d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 25% 25% -11.5%
all 4 +8.1% -2.2% 25% 25% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 25% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 25% -20.0%
15% -20.1% 25% -27.7%
20% -27.9% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,473.81 · official $22,473.81 (match) · 15 history records