Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8981…ce82 other 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,539 (+9%) realized +$3,545 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate88%142W / 20L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$239
sports 9% −$37
world 2% +$53
tech 1% +$14
finance 1% +$12
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -1.4% -10.8% 84% 32% -9.6%
≤30d 72 +3.3% -6.6% 85% 32% -9.2%
≤90d 78 +2.8% -7.0% 83% 32% -11.7%
all 162 +7.2% -3.0% 88% 24% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 24% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 7% -17.6%
15% -20.8% 6% -25.5%
20% -28.6% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$140 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$3,545
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses142 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions12
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$247
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $389 $390 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? No 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jordan 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-51%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix dip to $91 in November? Jun 17 $33 −$43 -130%
Will Netflix dip to $75.30 in November? Jun 17 $326 −$388 -119%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $194 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $362 −$209 -58%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $400 +$60 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $331 +$38 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $159 +$32 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $213 +$15 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $612 −$68 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $213 −$183 -86%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $86 +$13 +15%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $61 +$18 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $112 +$12 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $75 +$5 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$30 +30%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $308 +$42 +14%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $179 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $850 +$87 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $87 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $47 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $75 −$35 -47%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $324 +$41 +13%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $119 +$14 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $66 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $144 +$27 +19%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $401 +$17 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $29 +$2 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 −$8 -50%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $843 +$80 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $81 +$6 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +15%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $217 +$19 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $233 +$11 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $26 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 90¢ $36 8m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 86¢ $86 9m
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 90¢ $9 18m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 5¢ $2 50m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 9¢ $2 51m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 9¢ $3 51m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 12¢ $5 52m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 12¢ $1 52m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 15¢ $7 54m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 15¢ $0 54m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 18¢ $9 54m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 22¢ $22 55m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 25¢ $83 56m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 38¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 38¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 60¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 81¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 79¢ $8 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 50¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 55¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 60¢ $8 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 60¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 65¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 65¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.06 · official $609.33 (match) · 3500 history records