Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8980…b34d crypto 295 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,611 (-3%) realized −$3,592 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%269W / 25L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$5,742
14 days−$4,088
30 days−$3,923
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$3,755
world 20% +$1,303
sports 11% −$494
crypto 10% −$794
economics 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 31% -21.1%
≤30d 289 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 13% -12.6%
≤90d 294 -0.0% -9.6% 91% 13% -12.3%
all 294 -0.0% -9.6% 91% 13% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 13% -12.3%
10% -18.2% 4% -20.7%
15% -26.1% 2% -28.3%
20% -33.4% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$476 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,081
Realized−$3,592
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses269 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)294 / 295
History coverage80d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,100 $1,081 −$19 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,943 +$139 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$92 +9%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $200 −$34 -17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,404 +$135 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,254 +$150 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,011 +$458 +23%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 22 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,906 −$1,389 -73%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $174 +$26 +15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $890 +$110 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $896 +$104 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $404 +$15 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $971 +$29 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $245 +$78 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $970 +$30 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,176 +$115 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $19 +$6 +29%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,106 +$39 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,856 +$48 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $411 +$197 +48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $741 +$19 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,957 +$143 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$7 +18%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,920 +$80 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $790 +$15 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,237 +$63 +5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $1,243 +$37 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,190 +$114 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $6,889 −$6,889 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,109 +$81 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $2,229 +$78 +4%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $618 +$37 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $1,900 +$215 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,998 −$978 -16%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $155 +$19 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,308 +$130 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,281 +$128 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $987 +$13 +1%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $368 +$16 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,321 +$407 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,004 +$124 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,611 +$2,628 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8,852 −$960 -11%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 11 $1,148 −$5 -0%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $955 −$8 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $4,126 +$75 +2%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $916 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $1,104 3m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $167 1h
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea SELL LAZER 79¢ $167 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $72 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $601 1h
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY LAZER 95¢ $200 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,103 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,404 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $1,254 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,011 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $214 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,505 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 44¢ $303 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $397 28h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $49 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $24 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $25 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $1 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $10 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $24 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $16 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $54 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $33 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $24 30h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 90¢ $9 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $160 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.46 · official $1,081.46 (match) · 1095 history records