Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x897d…51ad crypto 1174 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%593W / 510L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day170.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$290
7 days+$409
14 days+$408
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$413
other 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1054 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 54% -3.7%
≤30d 1103 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -3.8%
≤90d 1103 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -3.8%
all 1103 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 54% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 54% -13.0%
15% -24.0% 54% -21.4%
20% -31.4% 54% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses593 / 510
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1103 / 1174
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day170.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 51¢ 76¢ $30 $46 +$15 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 49¢ 69¢ $29 $42 +$12 (+42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Up 53¢ 48¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 50¢ 40¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$31 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$31 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$31 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$35 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $33 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $33 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.09 · official $134.38 · 1886 history records