Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
89 0x897c…a163 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+7%) realized +$201 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +40.6% +27.2% 100% 100% +27.5%
≤30d 5 -15.6% -23.7% 60% 60% +0.4%
≤90d 5 -15.6% -23.7% 60% 60% +0.4%
all 5 -15.6% -23.7% 60% 60% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 60% +0.4%
10% -31.0% 60% -9.2%
15% -37.6% 40% -18.0%
20% -43.7% 20% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$97 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$201
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage8d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $476 $377 −$99 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $313 +$164 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$61 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$69 +46%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $480 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $313 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $252 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 12h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $4 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $95 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $95 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.36 · official $574.54 · 11 history records