Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x897a…4194
politics · 238 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$934 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,235 · open −$274
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,558
Realized+$1,235
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses82 / 93
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions63
Markets (closed)175 / 238
History coverage60d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 63 History 175 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$426
14 days+$1,101
30 days+$1,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 82¢ $379 $410 +$31 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 43¢ 52¢ $314 $381 +$67 (+21%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 28¢ 30¢ $235 $247 +$12 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 63¢ 57¢ $218 $199 −$19 (-9%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? No 26¢ 27¢ $140 $142 +$3 (+2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 42¢ 46¢ $117 $129 +$12 (+10%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 35¢ 99¢ $44 $124 +$80 (+180%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $139 $123 −$17 (-12%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 21¢ 88¢ $29 $117 +$89 (+311%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $117 $98 −$19 (-16%)
Will Jean-Paul Bourgeois win Chopped Castaways Season 1? Yes 79¢ 59¢ $79 $59 −$20 (-26%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 46¢ 18¢ $124 $50 −$74 (-60%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? No 21¢ 5¢ $154 $41 −$113 (-73%)
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in June? No 77¢ 90¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+16%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 63¢ 43¢ $44 $30 −$14 (-32%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $36 $28 −$8 (-22%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $115 $23 −$92 (-80%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? No 24¢ 36¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+52%)
DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by June 30? No 79¢ 92¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 17¢ 92¢ $4 $20 +$16 (+444%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? No 18¢ 7¢ $48 $19 −$29 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 62¢ 100¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+61%)
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in June? No 77¢ 90¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 71¢ 99¢ $11 $16 +$4 (+40%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +222%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$11 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +28%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 11 $37 −$35 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$11 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +17%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $56 +$21 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $190 +$47 +25%
Will Tom Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $149 +$166 +111%
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $16 +$5 +33%
Will Young Kim advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $45 +$19 +42%
Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $8 +$10 +120%
Will Mai Vang advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +34%
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $6 +$24 +368%
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $23 +$7 +29%
Will Esther Kim Varet advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $12 +$4 +33%
Will Lauren Babb Tomlinson advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Justin A. Bennett win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $56 +$10 +17%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? Jun 10 $42 +$23 +54%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $241 +$127 +52%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $113 −$109 -97%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 08 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $39 +$95 +242%
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +103%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 30? Jun 06 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 04 $9 +$24 +260%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 04 $13 +$12 +92%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $72 +$454 +632%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? Jun 04 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $10 +$32 +330%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $14 +$19 +138%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $124 +$215 +173%
Will Jim Desmond advance from the CA-48 primary election? Jun 04 $24 +$7 +28%
Will Vin Kruttiventi advance from the CA-13 primary election? Jun 04 $44 +$17 +40%
Will Linda Sánchez advance from the CA-41 primary election? Jun 04 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Jimmy Gomez advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $17 +$4 +26%
Will Marni von Wilpert advance from the CA-48 primary election? Jun 04 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Ammar Campa-Najjar advance from the CA-48 primary election? Jun 04 $32 −$17 -54%
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $15 +$25 +163%
Will Mitch Clemmons advance from the CA-41 primary election? Jun 04 $8 +$8 +96%
Will Angela Gonzales-Torres advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $8 +$8 +96%
Will Kevin Lincoln II advance from the CA-13 primary election? Jun 04 $18 +$5 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$129
politics 27% +$1,555
world 18% −$137
sports 6% −$199
tech 4% +$32
culture 3% −$166
weather 1% +$40
economics 1% −$34
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 59m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +33.6% +20.9% 73% 70% +22.6%
≤30d 114 +35.6% +22.7% 59% 58% +18.3%
≤90d 175 +10.5% -0.0% 47% 46% +8.4%
all 175 +10.5% -0.0% 47% 46% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 46% +8.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 41% -2.0%
15% -18.3% 30% -11.5%
20% -26.3% 26% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,557.83 · official $2,560.39 (match) · 2004 history records