Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8972…c3d5 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,492 (-14%) realized −$1,492 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%34W / 25L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$332
other 22% −$2,035
crypto 19% +$68
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -23.4% -30.7% 55% 42% -20.8%
≤30d 33 -23.4% -30.7% 55% 42% -20.8%
≤90d 33 -23.4% -30.7% 55% 42% -20.8%
all 59 +2.4% -7.4% 58% 36% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 36% -23.2%
10% -16.2% 24% -30.6%
15% -24.3% 22% -37.3%
20% -31.7% 19% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$105 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,492
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses34 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage158d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $96 −$95 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $111 −$30 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$25 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $75 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $86 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $142 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$43 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $107 +$29 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$30 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$53 -68%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 17 $2,038 −$1,635 -80%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $450 −$2 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $500 +$9 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? Jan 29 $500 +$8 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $386 +$13 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $999 +$33 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 19 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 19 $36 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $714 +$23 +3%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 17 $77 −$1 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $1,395 +$206 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $260 +$21 +8%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $376 −$4 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $615 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 12 $50 +$133 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 12 $20 +$22 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $28 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $27 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $80 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $75 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records