Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x8970…f311 sports 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%60W / 37L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$457
7 days+$525
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$381
other 34% +$205
crypto 15% +$117
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +8.9% -1.5% 69% 54% -4.4%
≤30d 97 +13.2% +2.4% 62% 48% -9.9%
≤90d 97 +13.2% +2.4% 62% 48% -9.9%
all 97 +13.2% +2.4% 62% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 48% -9.9%
10% -7.4% 22% -18.6%
15% -16.4% 16% -26.4%
20% -24.6% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$44 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses60 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage14d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 28 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 28 $705 +$46 +6%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $200 −$15 -8%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 28 $72 −$28 -39%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $203 −$200 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $201 +$32 +16%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $50 −$44 -88%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $282 +$136 +48%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $101 −$80 -79%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $502 +$70 +14%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $51 +$49 +97%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $201 +$26 +13%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $251 +$30 +12%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $300 +$12 +4%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $501 +$25 +5%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $302 +$108 +36%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $161 +$19 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $180 +$5 +3%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $50 +$15 +31%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $500 +$10 +2%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $401 +$46 +12%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $20 +$16 +79%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 28 $21 −$12 -60%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $201 +$43 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $402 +$61 +15%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $61 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $212 +$76 +36%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 +$5 +26%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $31 +$30 +99%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $10 −$5 -47%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $130 −$34 -26%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 +$9 +18%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $31 −$18 -57%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $30 +$4 +14%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 +$5 +24%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 −$41 -80%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 27 $503 +$44 +9%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $150 −$100 -66%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $30 +$44 +143%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $50 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 86¢ $76 1m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 96¢ $751 1m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $185 40m
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $21 43m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 48m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 49m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $232 50m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $6 50m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $339 53m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 16¢ $21 54m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $572 57m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $28 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $402 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $201 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 74¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $227 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $281 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $201 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $201 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $313 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $526 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $411 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records