Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x8970…0942 crypto 595 markets active 2d ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,084 (+20%) realized +$1,084 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%291W / 304L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$925
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +6.0% -4.1% 38% 38% -9.0%
≤30d 76 +2.5% -7.2% 39% 36% -7.2%
≤90d 310 +18.4% +7.2% 46% 43% +8.0%
all 595 +4.0% -5.9% 49% 47% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 47% +6.1%
10% -14.9% 46% -4.0%
15% -23.2% 42% -13.3%
20% -30.7% 39% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,084
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses291 / 304
Open positions0
Markets (closed)595 / 595
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 595 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$75 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $13 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $5 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $36 +$70 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 31 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $9 +$10 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $24 −$14 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $16 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $23 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 26 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records