Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x896f…fc3b politics 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 63L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$13
other 14% −$2
economics 12% −$2
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 64 -0.4% -9.9% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage639d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Brown win the 2025 AL Cy Young? Nov 24 $52 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Porto win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Maxx Crosby win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the Bundesliga? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Michael Blake be the next DNC chair? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC south? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to probation in gun case? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kansas State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden fined over 500k in gun case? Nov 11 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 16h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 40d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 44d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 50d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 50d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 74d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 75d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? SELL No 100¢ $55 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 103d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 106d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $4 106d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 106d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 108d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 109d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 113d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 114d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 115d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 116d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 119d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 120d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records