Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x896e…53f2 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,349 (+2%) realized +$2,008 · open +$1,341
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,895per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$809est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$27,340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$12,193
sports 38% +$15,691
crypto 22% −$3,896
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +16.7% +5.6% 53% 53% +5.7%
≤30d 44 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 43% -10.6%
≤90d 44 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 43% -10.6%
all 44 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 43% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 43% -10.6%
10% -26.0% 43% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -33.1% 36% -27.0%
20% -39.7% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$3,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,927 vs −$2,006 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$27,340
Realized+$2,008
Unrealized+$1,341
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$809
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2,895
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10,000 $9,918 −$82 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $8,000 $8,114 +$114 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5,000 $6,376 +$1,376 (+28%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 55¢ $3,000 $2,932 −$68 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,078 +$5,328 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $718 −$700 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8,199 −$2,149 -26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,077 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $8,128 −$5,000 -62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,031 +$2,131 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,039 +$3,616 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,054 −$2,599 -64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5,055 +$2,799 +55%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2,236 +$926 +41%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,138 +$3,191 +149%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,055 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,044 −$3,000 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,555 +$7,060 +276%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10,093 +$4,400 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,534 +$1,608 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,048 +$3,329 +109%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,504 −$1,469 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $1,606 −$1,553 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $2,669 −$2,100 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $1,670 +$1,511 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $1,146 −$1,100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $1,753 −$1,700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 30 $3,250 +$1,668 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $2,631 +$96 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $1,949 +$1,243 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $625 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $823 +$531 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $1,528 +$495 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $1,407 +$89 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 30 $1,607 −$1,607 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $1,237 −$1,200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $1,724 +$407 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $1,032 +$802 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $1,037 +$1,109 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $916 −$744 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 30 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 30 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10,080 −$9,181 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $604 +$45 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $136 −$132 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $3,040 4m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10,406 9m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 14¢ $718 34m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $5,058 49m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $5,058 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5,078 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3,088 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6,050 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,027 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 31¢ $2,041 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 44¢ $2,756 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $3,040 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 47¢ $3,048 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,050 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,162 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,031 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,035 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5,655 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,456 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,039 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,031 29h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 99¢ $7,855 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $5,055 32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $3,162 33h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $5,329 33h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 39¢ $2,138 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 70¢ $2,236 35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3,055 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $2,943 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,340.35 · official $27,399.19 (match) · 388 history records